Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,000 per ounce, citing continued central bank demand, especially from China, a falling US
dollar, and rising uncertainty over Fed independence.In a note to clients, analysts led by Michael Hsueh said that the recent surge in gold still has “further headroom to run,” revising their previous forecast of $3,700 to a more bullish $4,000 per troy ounce on average for 2026. The team pointed to macroeconomic volatility and political developments in the US, highlighting uncertainty created by changes in the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and growing challenges to the Federal Reserve’s independence. These dynamics, they said, could influence how the central bank adjusts its policy tools in the face of shifting economic conditions next year.Gold has been on a tear in 2025, surging about 41% year-to-date and recently breaking through the $3,700 mark for the first time ever. The rally has outpaced gains in major asset classes like the S&P 500 and pushed bullion beyond its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980. A weakening U.S. dollar—now at its lowest levels since July—has also helped propel prices, as has a widely expected rate cut by the Fed that markets have mostly priced in.Deutsche Bank also emphasized the role of official sector buying in supporting prices. Central banks are currently acquiring gold at roughly double the pace seen between 2011 and 2021, with China being the largest contributor. Recent trade data showed that China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rose by 126.81% in July compared to June. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China has continued to add gold to its reserves, further strengthening demand.While the long-term outlook remains bullish, the bank flagged several possible headwinds. These include strong equity market performance that may reduce safe-haven demand, increased clarity around former President Donald Trump’s trade policies, and potential changes in US immigration enforcement that could alter labor market dynamics and affect Fed policy. Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs issued an even more aggressive projection, suggesting that gold could approach $5,000 per ounce if just 1% of privately held US Treasuries were reallocated into the metal.
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